[Singapore Stocks] Yoma Strategic Holdings Update

• Healthy margins
• Lingering uncertainties in real estate
• Maintain HOLD
  

Healthy 2QFY18 Scorecard

Yoma’s 2QFY18 revenue increased 32.9% YoY to S$33.1m, driven largely by growth in its Automotive & Heavy Equipment and Consumer businesses. Notably, the group’s Automotive & Heavy Equipment business grew 109.9% YoY to S$14.6m on the back of healthy sales of its New Holland tractors.

We note that the group has entered into an agreement to buy back the development of Galaxy Towers (Zone C) at cost, entitling it to the share of profits in relation to the sales of units made previously. We believe that this contributed, in part, to the 3.3%pts YoY increase in gross margins to 44.7%, as the group’s real estate business generally commands higher margins relative to the other business segments.

PATMI fell 56.8% YoY to S$3.7m due largely to the absence of a S$14.7m fair value gain on the telecommunications towers investment which was recognized in 2QFY17.

Non-real Estate Businesses Picking Up Momentum

Yoma has successfully grown its KFC store footprint from 12 in March 2017 to 16 in September 2017, and is also exploring the possibility of acquiring and developing new brands. We think it is also possible for Yoma to consider a domestic brand, given that this could unlock greater efficiencies as the business scales up.

In the Automotive & Heavy Equipment space, Yoma is expected to deliver another 651 tractors from sales that were organized by the government’s Agriculture Mechanisation Department. Potential retail tractor sales might also materialize as Myanmar heads into the peak dry season.

Guarded Optimism on Real Estate Sector

Looking ahead, while we believe that the real estate market is starting to stabilize, it still remains broadly slower than before, especially in relation to the mid-market segment. To that end, we note that management is looking at redesigning its units at StarCity to cater to the mass market segment, which we understand to still see relatively robust demand.

Separately, the uncertainties over the Condominium Law passed in 2016 have yet to be clarified, and this could continue to rein in further optimism in the local property market, in our opinion. We maintain our HOLD rating and our fair value estimate of S$0.58.

Read More - Singapore Stocks Market Growth outlook  of Suntec REIT

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• AEM

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Singapore Stocks Market Overview

MARKET OVERVIEW
- The market could extend its blue-chip rally on positive momentum as the 3Q earnings season gets underway, with robust Sep industrial production data providing more ballast to the economy.
- Technically, STI is hovering at its 3,355 resistance level with the next objective at 3,380 and downside support seen at 3,320.

CORPORATE RESULTS
*Suntec REIT
- 3Q17 DPU of 2.483¢ (-2.1%) was in line despite dilution from an enlarged unit base (+4.6%) arising from its bond conversion.
- Revenue (+10.6%) and NPI (+11.6%) were lifted mainly by full-quarter contribution from 177 Pacific Highway office building in Sydney, which opened in Aug '16.
- Occupancy at its office (98.6%, -0.1ppt q/q) and retail (98.8%, -0.2ppt q/q) portfolios slipped slightly.
- Aggregate leverage dipped 0.7ppt q/q to 35.4%.
- Trades at annualised 3Q yield of 5.1% and 0.91x P/B.

*Viva Industrial Trust
- 3Q17 DPU rose 5% to 1.9¢ despite a larger unit base (+11.7%). This brought 9M17 distribution to 5.615¢ (+8%), coming in at the higher end of estimates.
- For the quarter, gross revenue and NPI leapt to $28.3m (+16.8%) and $20.6m (+18.3%) on contribution from recently-acquired 6 Chin Bee Avenue, as well as higher takings at two business parks.
- Portfolio occupancy ticked up by 0.3ppt q/q to 90.9%, while aggregate leverage crept 0.5ppt q/q higher to 39.6%.
- Last traded at annualized 3Q yield of 7.9% and 1.2x P/B.

*CDL Hospitality Trusts
- Post rights 3Q17 DPS of 2.29¢ (-3%) came in below expectations.
- Revenue and NPI jumped to $54.8m (+20.7%) and $40.4m (+15.9%), mainly from maiden contributions from recently-acquired The Lowry Hotel in UK and Pullman Hotel Munich in Germany.
- But domestic RevPAR of $166 (-1.4%) remained under pressure from the competitive environment.
- Aggregate leverage fell to 33.3% (-5.4ppt q/q).
- Trades at annualised 3Q yield of 5.6% and 1.12x P/B.

*Sheng Siong
- 3Q17 net profit jumped 25.7% to $19.7m on better operating leverage. Excluding an one-off tax impact, its results would have met expectations,
- Revenue rose 4.2% to $210.9m on higher same store sales growth (+1.7%) and contribution from new stores.
- Operating margin widened to 10% (+0.6ppt) on lower distribution (-2.9%) and admin (-0.5%) expenses.
- Bottom line benefitted from a tax refund of $2.2m (3Q16: nil).
- Last traded at 21.1x forward P/E.

*Indofood Agri
- 3Q17 core net profit slumped 25.3% to Rp97b, in line with estimates.
- Revenue inched 4.6% higher to Rp3.72t on improved sales volume of palm products but offset by lower average selling prices in CPO (-3%) and palm kernel (-16%).
- EBITDA margin declined 4.5ppt to 21.2% due to higher fertilizer application and increased operating expenses (+24.3%).
- Bottom line was dragged by a negative Rp61.7b swing into FX loss, although partly mitigated by a spike in JV income of Rp70.5b (+51.9%) and lower associate loss of Rp2.6b (3Q16: Rp18.5b loss).
- NAV/share at $0.875.

*Yoma
- 2QFY18 net profit tumbled 56.8% to $3.7m, bringing 1HFY18 earnings of $6.4m to just 23% of FY18 street estimate.
- Quarter revenue jumped 32.9% to $33.1m, lifted by a spike in automotive & heavy equipment sales (+109.9%) and the consumer segment (+20.1%), while sale of residences & land development rights (-0.6%) and real estate rental and services (+0.9%) remained flattish.
- Gross margin improved 3.3ppt to 44.7% due to higher profitability achieved in StarCity Zone C and Zone B.
- Bottom line was partly weighed by absence of fair value gain (2QFY17: $14.7m), although partly offset by lower JV/ associate loss of $0.9m (2QFY17: $1.9m loss).
- NAV/share at $0.3789.

*Japfa
- 3Q17 results came below estimates as core net profit dived 71% to US$12.1m.
- Revenue grinded 3% higher to US$814.3m, bolstered by Indonesia animal protein (+5.8%), dairy (+26.7%), and consumer food (+10.5%) segments, but was doused by the continued decline in swine selling prices in Vietnam.
- Operating margin collapsed 6.5ppt to 6.9% due to weaker margins from poultry and beef businesses, absence of one-off gain from disposal of beef cattle business, and Vietnam swine prices remained below costs.
- Bottom line was further impacted by a US$2.9m jump in finance cost.
- Net gearing jumped to 0.68x from 0.45x in Dec '16.
- NAV/share at US$0.44.

*Tuan Sing
- 3Q17 net profit declined 9% to $5.9m, partially due to a $3.6m spike in finance cost.
- Revenue rose 12% to $101m, underpinned by stronger property (+18%) and industrial services (+16.1%) segments.
- Gross margin shrank 6.8ppt to 16.7% amid a shift in sales mix.
- Bottom line was also hurt by higher distribution cost stemming from the launch of Kandis Residence.
- Last traded at 0.57x P/B.

*Samudera Shipping
- 3Q17 results turned around to net profit of US$0.5m (3Q16: US$3.8m loss).
- Revenue jumped 14.2% to US$69.7m as improvement from container shipping (+18%) led by higher volume handled was outweighed by weakness in bulk & tanker business (-13.8%) due to a shrinking fleet.
- Gross profit margin expanded to 5.8ppt from breakeven, amid higher container freight rates and tanker charter rates.
- Bottom line was also helped by absence of a US$2.4m provision.
- Net gearing was pared 0.11x from 0.12x in Dec '16.
- Last traded at 0.38x P/B.

POSITIVE NEWS
*Starburst
- Awarded a contract worth $6.6m in the Middle East to undertake ballistic protection works to a firearm training facility.
- Work is expected to begin in Jun '18 and be completed in Sep '19.
- Last traded at 3.2x P/B.

*Ley Choon
- Secured contracts worth $2.6m for closed-circuit television survey of sewers and resurfacing of roadworks.


- Trades at 2.1x trailing P/E and 1.46x P/B.

NEUTRAL NEWS
*Unusual
- Signed letters of intent with RINGLING Bros and Feld Entertainment to jointly present 48 "Disney On Ice" shows across South Korea and Taiwan.
- 12 "Disney on Ice "Let's Party" shows may take place in Oct 18, while 36 "Disney On Ice 'Frozen'" shows may take place in 3Q19.

*Spackman Entertainment
- Completed acquisition of South-Korean based motion picture production start-up Take Pictures, via the issue of 54.1m shares.

*Samudera Shipping
- Disposing two vessels for US$9.2m, and expected to result in a net gain of US$0.8m.
- Proceeds will be used for working capital and future business expansion.

*Yuuzoo
-Issued 10m drawdown shares at $0.058 each to GEM Global Yield Fund, which has committed $30m capital earlier.
- Proceeds earmarked for business development and growth.

_______________________________________________________________

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Keppel Corporation Active in China

• S$290m net gain from divestment
• Positive on asset recycling strategy
• Up valuation on Tianjin Eco-City

Divests stake in Keppel China Marina Holdings

Keppel Corporation announced yesterday that Keppel Land China has entered into an agreement with Delight Prime Ltd (unit of HKlisted Logan Property) to divest its 100% stake in Keppel China Marina Holdings Pte Ltd (KCMH) for approx. RMB2.9b (~S$597.4m), subject to completion adjustments.

KCMH indirectly owns an 80% effective interest in Sunsea Yacht Club (Zhongshan), a JV which owns and develops Keppel Cove, an integrated residential cum marina lifestyle development on Modao Island in Zhongshan city, China. Recall that Keppel China Marina Holdings entered into a JV with Sunsea Yacht Club (HK) to develop its first integrated residential cum marina lifestyle development in Zhongshan in 2008.

Expects Gain of S$290m

The consideration was arrived at after taking into account the unaudited NAV of KCMH Group and the market value of the unsold inventories and remaining undeveloped land. With this divestment, a gain of about S$290m is expected to be recognised. Completion is expected to take place by the end of this year.

Land Prices in Tianjin Eco-City Have Increased Significantly

We are positive on the group’s strategy to recycle assets to seek higher returns and rebalance its portfolio to focus on selected highgrowth cities in China. KEP’s Tianjin Eco-City project is also bearing fruit, with average selling prices of Eco-City residential land having increased significantly since 2016 – RMB1,700/sm in 2014, RMB1,900/sm in 2015, RMB6,300/sm in 2016 and finally RMB13,800/sm this year.

Do note that land sales from this project (to either KepLand or other property developers for development) are accounted for under the “Investments” segment of KEP.

Recall that KEP has a 45% effective stake in SinoSingapore Tianjin Eco-City Investment and Development, which acquires land from the Chinese government based on prices that were fixed earlier in 2008.

We take this into account in our sum-of-parts valuation, and after adjusting our estimates, our fair value rises from S$7.73 to S$8.31. Maintain BUY.

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Good time to BUY Wing Tai Holdings Ltd

• 1QFY18 results in line
• In net cash position
• FV estimate increased to S$2.77

1QFY18 PATMI up YoY From S$1.1m to S$8.2m

Wing Tai’s 1QFY18 PATMI increased from S$1.1m to S$8.2m YoY mainly due to contributions from Le Nouvel Ardmore, Le Nouvel KLCC as well as disposal gains on the Huai Hai project in Shanghai. In addition, we also saw the group’s share of profits of associated and joint venture companies increased 17% YoY to S$6.7m given higher contributions from Wing Tai Properties Ltd in Hong Kong.

In terms of the topline, however, 1QFY18 revenues decreased 4% YoY to S$67.1m as the group recorded lower homes sales over the quarter. Overall, we judge 1QFY18 results to be broadly within expectations.

Fair Value Estimate Increased to S$2.77; Maintain BUY

To recap, in Aug 2017, the group together with Keppel Land acquired through a government land sales tender a 99-year leasehold residential site in Serangoon North Ave 1. The site, which has a gross floor area of 462,561 square feet in the Serangoon Gardens area, will be redeveloped into a new condominium development with over 600 homes.

Read More - Investment Alert: MAS won’t control cryptographic forms of money
 

As at end Sep 2017, Wing Tai continues to sit on a strong balance sheet in a net cash position with over S$1,011m in cash and equivalents. We now forecast for Singapore home prices to appreciate 1% in 2017 and 3% to 8% in 2018 and, given the group’s ample dry powder, we believe that Wing Tai is well positioned to benefit from the turnaround in the domestic housing sector.

Notwithstanding a 46% share price appreciation over the year to date, we see the group’s current price to be relatively undemanding at 0.57x price-to-book. After updating our valuation model with our latest assumptions and firmer average selling prices, our fair value estimate increases from S$2.37 to S$2.77. Maintain BUY.

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Good time to BUY Mapletree Logistics Trust

• 2QFY18 DPU grew 1.5% YoY
• Rental reversion of 1.4%
• Slight uptick in portfolio occupancy

2QFY18 Results Met Our Expectations

 

Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT) reported its 2QFY18 results which met our expectations. Gross revenue and NPI grew 2.3% and 2.5% YoY to S$93.7m and S$78.7m, respectively. DPU improved by 1.5% YoY to 1.887 S cents. This comprises an advanced distribution of 1.706 S cents (period from 1 Jul to 21 Sep 2017) which has already traded ex-dividend on 19 Sep and a remaining 0.181 S cents DPU (period from 22 Sep to 30 Sep 2017) which will be paid with the 3QFY18 distribution in Feb 2018.

On a 1HFY18 basis, MLT’s gross revenue rose 4.6% to S$189.5m and its NPI jumped 5.0% to S$159.6m, with the latter forming 47.0% of our FY18 forecast. DPU of 3.774 S cents represented growth of 1.7% and constituted 49.7% of our full-year projection.

Rental Reversions Moderated During the Quarter

Management delivered positive rental reversions of 1.4% in 2QFY18, mainly due to strength from Hong Kong and China. This was, however, a moderation from the 6% rental reversion achieved in 1QFY18. Overall portfolio occupancy inched up slightly from 95.5% (as at 30 Jun 2017) to 95.8%, with all its markets registering either improved or unchanged occupancy.

Looking ahead, MLT continues to see sustained leasing activities across its markets, although supply pressures in Singapore are likely to hamper the recovery process. Management has thus been diversifying its exposure into other geographies.

Rejuvenating Its Portfolio; Maintain BUY

During 2QFY18, MLT completed the divestments of three properties, namely Zama Centre and Shiroishi Centre in Japan and 4 Toh Tuck Link in Singapore. The combined divestment gains of ~S$5.4m will be distributed to unitholders over six to eight quarters, while the proceeds received will be redeployed into its asset enhancement initiatives and inorganic growth opportunities.

MLT’s ~HK$4.8b acquisition of Mapletree Logistics Hub Tsing Yi in Hong Kong at an initial NPI yield of 5.7% from its sponsor was completed on 12 Oct. Thereafter, its aggregate leverage ratio has increased from 33.7% (as at 30 Sep 2017) to ~38%. We retain our forecasts, BUY rating and S$1.35 fair value estimate on MLT.

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Good Time to BUY M1 Ltd

• Met 73% of our 9M17 estimate
• NB-IoT network takes time to ramp up
• Maintain HOLD

9M17 Revenue Growth Driven Mainly by Fixed Services

 

M1 Ltd’s (M1) 3Q17 revenue grew 1.0% YoY to S$251.6m driven mainly by fixed services (+19.9%) and mobile post-paid (+3.4%) revenues but partly offset by weaker handset sales (-13.6%) and international call services (- 7.0%). Fixed services revenue growth was driven by a 20.0% YoY increase in customer base despite recording 6.1% decline in ARPU, while mobile revenue growth was mainly driven by higher post-paid customer base and flat YoY ARPU.

3Q17 operating expenses rose at a slower pace of 0.6% YoY to S$209.1m due to a 21.8% decline in advertising and promotion expenses, offset by higher depreciation. Consequently, EBITDA increased 1.3% YoY to S$75.5m. However, NPAT fell 4.8% YoY to S$32.7m as taxation increased 13.1% to S$7.2m. For 9M17, revenue rose 2.3% YoY to S$763.9m driven mainly by fixed services and handset sales.

However, operating expenses grew 4.8% to S$633.3m due to higher handset costs and higher wholesale costs of fixed services. Consequently, 9M17 NPAT declined 13.9% YoY to S$68.6m and EBITDA fell 5.0% to S$228.0m, which formed 72% and 73% of our FY17 forecasts, respectively.

No Change in FY17 Outlook Guidance

For FY17, M1 keeps its guidance unchanged:

1. capex to be around S$150m,
2. expects NPAT to decline YoY for FY17, and 3) intends to maintain 80% dividend payout ratio for FY17.

Looking ahead, we believe competition within the mobile segment will continue to put pressure on ARPU with the impending entry of TPG as well as the announced intention of MyRepublic to launch mobile services as a Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO). While M1 has recently launched nationwide NB-IoT network, it expects mass adoption to take time as a new technology and with the eco-system still evolving.

Separately, we do not expect M1’s ICT business to contribute materially in the near-term as it needs time to ramp up as well.

Look once- Keep Eye on These Singapore Stocks

Supported by 6.8% Forward Dividend Yield

With a set of in-line 9M17 results, we keep our forecasts unchanged and note the lack of any near-term catalysts driving earnings. Hence, we maintain our HOLD rating and the same FV of S$1.65.

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Singapore Market review of the day

SINGAPORE - After two weeks of solid gains in the stock market that sent the benchmark Straits Times Index (STI) up by nearly 100 points or 3.1 per cent to breach through the 3,300 level, what are the odds of a third week of gain?

Pretty good, analysts reckon, citing Singapore's strong economic footing and the relative underperformance of its Singapore Stock market against regional peers.

The Trade and Industry Ministry's advance estimates last Friday showed that the economy expanded 4.6 per cent - its fastest pace in more than three years - in the third quarter, buoyed by the surging manufacturing sector.

This beat economist forecasts of 3.8 per cent growth, and was also the fastest quarterly expansion since 2014.

The better-than-expected performance was lifted by a stellar showing in manufacturing, which surged 15.5 per cent year on year.

The sector makes up a fifth of the economy.

Services - which makes up two-thirds of the gross domestic product (GDP) and employs the bulk of workers - grew 2.6 per cent.

Bolstering the good share Investment news on the same day was a decision by the central bank to keep its exchange rate policy stance unchanged.

This means keeping the Singapore dollar band on a path of zero appreciation against the currencies of key trading partners.

This will be welcomed by local exporters who see a dearer Singapore dollar as being unhelpful in pricing their products competitively in the global market.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore uses the exchange rate as its main monetary policy tool to strike a balance between inflation from overseas and economic growth.

"Upbeat GDP readings and MAS policy decision sent the STI to its highest level in more than two months... STI has finished its two-month consolidation and is gaining upward momentum ahead of third-quarter earnings season," said CMC Markets Singapore analyst Margaret Yang.

She noted that the local index had underperformed regional peers over the last two months, with its performance lagging behind major indices S&P and Hang Seng.

The STI ended last week up 0.8 per cent at 3,319.11, a key level that Ms Yang has noted.

"3,300 point is a psychological and technical resistance level for the STI. Breaking out above this critical point will pave way for more upside towards the previous highs of 3,354 points."

With the results season kicking in, good corporate earnings will help to boost confidence and attract more liquidity into Singapore, she added.

DBS Group Research noted that corporate earnings growth in Singapore is recovering after two years of negative growth in 2015 and 2016.

It believes earnings growth should continue to be healthy, driven by a decent economic recovery with upside risk.

"We believe STI could attempt to hit 3,500 by end-2018, representing around 10 per cent total return inclusive of dividends."

The Keppel group of companies will report their third quarter results this week, starting with Keppel DC Reit and Keppel Infrastructure Trust on Monday and ending with Keppel Corporation on Thursday.

This week and next appear to be a popular reporting period among the Reits, with no fewer than 19 indicating that they will release their results.

Singapore Property stocks, which have enjoyed a surge of price and volume, are likely to remain in play.

The release on Oct 16 of new private home sales for September may give further fillip to the share price of developers if the sales figures are as strong as the spate of collective sales that have hit the market.

Last Friday, City Developments closed at $12.66, its highest level in nearly five years while UOL ended at a record $8.89.

Both companies snared a residential site each in the sought after East Coast area through collective sales recently.

Singapore Stocks To Watch

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• ALLIANCE MINERAL
• COMPACT METAL
• ROWSLEY
• THAIBEV

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How to Pick best dividend stocks Singapore

As investors, we all love dividends. Other than the thrill of seeing a stock you own rise higher and higher in the Malaysia / Singapore stock market, receiving passive dividend income from your investments every year is something we all look forward to.




So if you’re more of an income investor and looking to invest for dividends, your stock portfolio will be markedly different from someone who’s investing for high growth and capital gain. The stocks that will give good, consistent dividends may not necessarily be the kind that will grow by 20-50% a year and vice versa.

So if you investing for dividends, you have to invest accordingly and only pick the best stocks that will give the passive dividend income you want. The question is: How?

So if you’re slightly lost and looking for some direction, here are 7 quick steps to help you pick the best dividend stocks around: 

1 .Look for Mid-Large Cap Stocks

The best dividend stocks are usually large, mature companies with stable revenue, profits and cash flow. These companies have little growth left in them. Because these companies are no longer expanding aggressively, the majority of their earnings can be returned to shareholders as dividends.

On the other hand, a smaller, high-growth company needs more cash and resources to grow and expand its business, leaving less money to pay shareholders dividends (if any).

2 .Dividend Payout Ratio is 50% or More

If a company is large, stable and isn’t seeking to grow aggressively any more, then the majority of the profits it makes should be returned to shareholders. So look for a company with a dividend payout ratio of at least 50% or more. For example, Nestlé (Malaysia) returns over 90% of its earnings to shareholders as dividends.

If a company has a low payout ratio, ask yourself why the company is holding on to the cash. Unless they have a good reason to do so or have a way to generate exceptional returns for shareholders, the majority of profits should be paid out as dividends.

3 .Track Record of Paying Consistent Dividends

The company should have a long and stable track record of paying consistent/growing dividends to shareholders. No point if a company is large and successful and has profits to distribute as dividends, but chooses to pay them out inconsistently.

Check to see a company pay a consistently growing dividend over the last 5-10 years. This shows that as the company grows more and more successful, the management is also willing to share the fruits of its labour with its shareholders.

4 .Company’s Fundamentals Must Be Sustainable

Many dividend investors tend to ignore the overall aspects of a company’s fundamentals. They choose to focus primarily on the amount of dividends they can receive. This is wrong. While dividend yield is obviously important for someone seeking dividends, it is also important to consider the overall health of the company.

A company with deteriorating fundamentals (e.g. falling revenue, profits, cash flow, fading economic moat, etc.) cannot sustain its dividend payout in the long term. The less revenue and profit it makes, the less dividends it can pay.

Over time, a company with falling revenues and profits will see its stock price fall when investors realize that the company is no longer performing. This fall in value will eat into any dividend gains you might have had at the start – leaving you back at square one.

So always make sure the dividend company you want to invest in will remain fundamentally strong and robust for many years to come.

5 .Company has Low CAPEX

As a dividend investor, you prefer to invest in a company with low capital expenditure (CAPEX). A company with high CAPEX means that it has to continually reinvest its profits in maintaining its business operations, leaving less to distribute as dividends.

For example, airlines have very high CAPEX as they need to continually maintain their aircraft and upgrade them to newer models after a certain amount of years.

So look for a company that’s able to maintain/grow its business with minimal CAPEX.

If you want help, you can always kick start the idea by downloading our watchlist of dividend paying stocks below:

6 .Company has Stable Free Cash Flow

Ultimately, a company must have real cash (not just profits) to be able to pay dividends to its shareholders. Even if a company is profitable but has negative or inconsistent free cash flow, it will have trouble paying stable dividends.

A smaller company that is seeking to grow might have negative free cash flow as it expands its business. But a large, stable company that dominates its industry should be producing high amounts of free cash flow year after year.

7 .Yield Must Beat Risk-Free Rate

The dividend yield you receive should beat the risk-free rate of the country you reside in. The risk-free rate is the lowest return you can theoretically get “risk-free”over a period of time.

In the US, if you plan to invest your money for ten years, then the risk-free rate is usually based on the return of the 10-year US Treasury note which is currently around 2.30%. In Singapore, the risk-free rate is usually based on the interest your CPF special account gives you, which is 4%.

If your dividend yield can’t beat your risk-free rate, you might as well put your money with your CPF since you face less risk growing your money there compared to investing in stocks.

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Source - fifthperson

China Evergrande Group Statement for SGX Market

According to the South China Morning Post, home buying was notably subdued in China’s top-tier cities during the eight-day “Golden Week” public holiday, which is a traditionally popular season for home sales.

 

 

Data from real estate brokers 5I5J Group and Centaline Property Agency indicate that new home sales fell as much as 78% and 64% in Shanghai and Beijing, respectively, during the holidays compared with a year ago.

 

Catch More - Good Time to Buy Keppel Corp

Given the 19th Communist Party Congress starting October 18, it is highly likely that potential buyers are adopting a wait-andsee approach. Further, the slew of cooling measures introduced by the local authorities, ranging from heightened mortgage down payments to resale restrictions, appears to be taking effect.

While Evergrande’s latest operating statistics for Sep’17 indicate that contracted sales remains healthy till date, a prolonged period of market softness will be a cause for concern.

Investing Alert: Malaysia, Singapore stocks fall ahead of Fed meeting minutes

Mobile phone companies drag KLCI index down, DBS, ComfortDelGro decline in STI

[SINGAPORE ] [KUALA LUMPUR ] Malaysia shares fell for a second consecutive day, weighed by a decline in mobile phone operators. Singapore stocks ended lower ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's meeting minutes.

Investors shrugged off the positive cues from Wall Street overnight with the Dow Jones Industrial Average logging another all-time high. U.S. stocks have repeatedly reached record levels in recent sessions, buoyed by expectations of a cut in corporate taxes and upbeat manufacturing and services data.

The lackluster performance of equity markets in Malaysia and Singapore on Wednesday came ahead of the Fed releasing the minutes of its September meeting. Investors are looking for more cues on the outlook for the economy and on inflation from the document.

The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI declined 0.2% to 1,757.21. DiGi.Com dropped 2%, Telekom Malaysia lost 1.1%, and Axiata Group and Maxis declined by at least 0.6% each.

The Malaysian telecommunications regulator Wednesday invited bids from carriers to buy blocks of 700 Mhz spectrum for high-speed mobile phone services. The move comes as consumers in Southeast Asia's third-largest economy, where many own more than one mobile phone, are increasingly shifting to data-heavy offerings.

Operators are expected to vie aggressively for a slice of the spectrum that could push up bid prices and subsequently pressure cash flows, said AmInvestment Bank's analyst Alex Goh. While successfully securing 700 Mhz airwaves would not increase revenue directly, "it's a race that all players have to run, so that they can provide the best service quality to users," he said.


AWC, a provider of integrated facilities management, dropped 2.5% after it agreed to mutually terminate a contract worth 130 million ringgit ($30.8 million) with the Malaysian government.

Cuscapi, a software developer, declined 3% to 0.325 ringgit after saying it planned to raise 79.80 million ringgit selling 300 million shares and 60 million warrants.

Muhibbah Engineering (M) advanced 0.7% after it won an infrastructure works order worth 168 million ringgit. Hubline, engaged in shipping services, climbed 7.1% amid speculation the company will receive new government orders from the oil & gas sector in coming months.

Oil and gas services company KNM Group advanced 1.8%. Maybank Investment Bank said in a note that the company's Peterborough, U.K. power plant project is "finally" moving along after financing had been a major stumbling block in the past.

Venture Corp Share Investment Singapore

1. 2H historically stronger than 1H
2. Revising upwards our estimates
3. Reiterate BUY on higher FV

Earnings Driven by Revenue Growth and Margins Expansion

 

Singapore Stock Venture Corporation Ltd (VMS) has consecutively posted strong double-digit YoY revenue growth over the past three quarters, driven by higher demand in its Test & Measurement/Medical & Life Science/Others (TMO) segment, especially medical and life sciences related equipment, as well as its Networking & Communications (N&C) segment given the world’s increasing need for wider network connectivity at higher speeds. More impressively, VMS’s PATMI has over the past eight quarters recorded double-digit YoY growth, with the most recent 2Q17 PATMI surged 61.0%, driven by margins expansion in addition to higher sales.

And since FY12, VMS has consistently posted stronger 2H results compared to 1H, as its customers increase spending nearer to end of each calendar year, and we expect this trend to continue in FY17. Hence, based on above, we are raising our FY17–FY21 PATMI forecasts by 10%–15%.

Share Buybacks by CEO a Positive Signal

VMS’s CEO, Mr. Wong Ngit Liong, has been exercising his employee share options and making open market share purchases on numerous occasions. More specifically, Mr. Wong spent:

~S$2.1m to purchase 166,300 shares at an average cost of S$12.51/share on 14 July, ~$1.3m to purchase 105,300 shares at an average cost of S$12.52/share on 17 July, and ~S$6.1m to purchase 400,000 shares at an average cost of S$15.26/share on 12 Sep.
Over these three occasions, Mr. Wong spent a total of S$9.5m in open market purchases of VMS’s shares. In our view, these transactions provide a very clear positive signal of his confidence over where he believes the company is heading towards.

Potential Upside to Dividend Yield

Consequently, as we factor in for a stronger 2H in FY17 on the back of continued margins expansion, our DCF-derived FV increases from S$14.80 to S$20.33. Reiterate BUY on VMS.

Given its outstanding results for the past few quarters, solid balance sheet and sanguine outlook, we believe there is much scope for VMS to potentially increase its dividend, which has ranged between S$0.50 to S$0.55/share since FY08.

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Share Investment of Yoma Strategic Holdings

In the World Bank Group’s East Asia and Pacific Economic Update for October 2017, Myanmar was noted to have seen economic growth slowing to 5.9% in 2016/17 compared to 7% in 2015/16. However, economic growth is projected to recover to 6.4% in 2017/18 and average 6.9% over the medium-term.

 

The report also noted that an expected bounce in agriculture activity is likely to support stronger growth in rural incomes moving forward, though productivity bottlenecks remain.

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In our view, these set of forecasts should continue to support Yoma’s distribution and after-sales services for New Holland tractors. The World Bank Group also notes that consumer purchasing power in the country has also been rising. This also bodes well for Yoma’s KFC business, as the group is looking to increase its store count from 13 as of 30 Jun 2017 to 22 by the end of FY18.

Maintain HOLD with an unchanged fair value estimate of SS$0.58.

 

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SPH REIT Share Investment update

1. 4QFY17 DPU +0.7% YoY
2. FY17 portfolio rental reversion of 1.2%
3. Full committed occupancy

4QFY17 Results Within Expectations

SPH REIT reported an in-line set of 4QFY17 results, with gross revenue and NPI growing by 1.3% and 3.9% YoY to S$52.9m and S$41.8m, respectively. This was driven by higher rental income from both Paragon and The Clementi Mall (TCM), coupled with higher NPI margins (+2 ppt YoY to 79.0%) due to proactive management of utility contracts, lower property tax and maintenance expenses.

DPU for the quarter came in at 1.42 S cents, representing YoY growth of 0.7% as management released S$4.5m of taxable income available for distribution retained in 9MFY17, versus S$1.6m released in 4QFY16.

For its full-year performance, SPH REIT reported a 1.5% increase in gross revenue to S$212.8m and a 4.5% jump in NPI to S$168.1m. The latter formed 101.5% of our FY17 forecast. DPU of 5.53 S cents translated into growth of 0.5% and constituted 99.0% of our FY17 projection.

Negative Rental Reversion for Paragon a Surprise

Both Paragon and TCM maintained their 100% committed occupancy, as at end-FY17. However, a downside surprise came from Paragon’s negative rental reversion figure of 0.8% for expiries in FY17. As rental reversions for the mall were positive in 9MFY17 at 3.6%, this implies a weak 4QFY17 showing.

The softness came largely from the retail space, as reversions for the office/medical leases were flat. TCM fared better, with positive rental uplifts of 3.7% for the full-year, thus resulting in an overall portfolio rental reversion of 1.2% in FY17. Shopper traffic for both malls was stable.

While Paragon achieved higher tenant sales of 2.1% in FY17, TCM saw a 5.8% decline. Nevertheless, the occupancy cost for Paragon (19.6%; unchanged) and TCM (15.8%; +0.8 ppt) remains healthy, in our view.

There were also positives from SPH REIT’s portfolio valuation, underpinned by a compression in cap rates adopted by the valuers, as rental assumptions held steady. Paragon’s valuation rose 1.5% to S$2,695m, while that of TCM inched up 1.6% to S$583m.

Maintain BUY

Taking into account this full-set of results, we trim our FY18 and FY19 DPU forecasts by 1.1% and 1.8%, respectively. But as we also roll forward our valuations, our DDM-derived fair value estimate remains unchanged at S$1.08. Maintain BUY.

More update: Stock signals for Stock investment or share investment in Singapore stock Market

Market update: AirAsia X to increase flights to South Korea on strong demand

AirAsia X, the long-haul arm of Malaysia's budget carrier AirAsia, plans to increase flight frequencies to South Korea as it sharpens focus on North Asian markets to meet an anticipated robust demand, top company executives said Monday.




"We are targeting 80% load factor in the first 12 months of operations," Chief Executive Benyamin Ismail said at a news conference after announcing four-times-a-week flight from Kuala Lumpur to popular tourist destination Jeju island.

The new route will add more than 150,000 in annual capacity, he added.



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"South Korea is an important market and we have seen tremendous growth from our existing routes to Seoul and Busan, which will now be complemented by our new service to Jeju, saving our guests the hassle of domestic transit to the island province," he said.

The airline, which carried two million passengers in the Malaysia-South Korea route, is expecting demand to remain strong in the months ahead, Benyamin said.

AirAsia X plans to increase from December its weekly flights to Seoul from Kuala Lumpur to 18 from the current 14 and also raise the frequency of weekly flights to Busan to five from four in the same period, he added.

Meanwhile, the company will cut flights to Australia next year to focus more on North Asian markets, Group Chief Executive Kamarudin Meranun said. "We have scarcity of resources and therefore we need to be selective," he said.

The company's load factor - a measure of how full the planes are - rose by five percentage points on year to 80% in April-June period. Its seat capacity increased 26% from a year earlier to 1,722,513 and it carried 1,387,257 passengers, 34% more than a year earlier.

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While analysts favour AirAsia X's move to reduce Australian exposure, they expect its North Asia expansion strategy to boost profitability if it can generate an "attractive" yield.

AirAsia X has been facing strong competition in its Australian routes from Middle Eastern Airlines such as Emirates, MIDF Amanah Investment Bank's analyst Tay Yow Ken said. "Only 50% of AirAsia X's Australia routes were profitable," he said.

Stock Market analysis of City Developments Limited

• Price translates to S$1,515 psf ppr
• FV increases to S$12.90
• Maintain BUY

Acquires Amber Park for S$906.7m Via Collective Sale

 

An 80:20 JV between City Developments (CDL) and Hong Leong group has successfully tendered S$906.7m for the collective sale of Amber Park. The 200-unit development at Amber Garden is one of the largest sites in the locality with a land area of 213,675 square feet. With a plot ratio of 2.8, the allowable GFA of the project is 598,290 sq ft. Development charges are not payable for the proposed development. This translates to a price of S$1,515 per square foot per plot ratio, which we believe is a reasonable price given a competitive land market currently.

We expect sale prices of between S$2.3k – S$2.4k when the new project is launched. Subject to approval, the JV plans to redevelop the site into a condominium project comprising four 25-storey blocks with close to 800 units and a basement carpark. Most apartments will have a NorthSouth orientation with many units commanding sea views. We note that CDL was also the original developer of Amber Park three decades ago, and management has indicated that they are intimately familiar with the location.

Near New Tanjong Katong MRT Station to be Completed in 2023

The site is located in a private residential area in the Katong and East Coast area and is accessible via the East Coast Parkway. It is also within 1km to Tanjong Katong Primary School and 2km to CHIJ (Katong) Primary, Haig Girl’s School, Kong Hwa School and Tao Nan School. The new Tanjong Katong MRT station will also be located 200m from the site when it is completed in 2023. W

e update our model for the site acquisition and firmer residential ASP assumptions, given recovering home prices and stronger market conditions, and our fair value estimate increases from S$12.39 to S$12.90. Maintain BUY.

 

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Market Update: Singapore stocks log best week in nine months, Malaysian shares rise

Singapore shares posted their best weekly advance since January, helped by a rally in property developers and lenders, while Malaysian equities also rose over the last five days to snap a two-week losing run.

Singapore's FTSE Straits Times index rose 0.9% to 3,291.29 on Friday, taking its rally this week to 2.2%. UOL Group added 5.3% since last Friday, pacing gains for real estate developers. DBS Group Holdings led banking stocks higher, climbing 3.2% this week. On Friday, UOL Group was up 4.3% and DBS by 0.8%.

Property Singapore stocks in the city-state gained this week after City Developments bought a residential site worth more than S$900 million ($660 million), reigniting optimism for Singapore's real estate market, according to at least two brokerages. Shares of City Developments rose 2.3% this week.

Lenders climbed for a third consecutive week, tracking a rise in U.S. bond yields amid optimism over tax reforms in the world's largest economy. Singapore rates are heavily influenced by the U.S. and a rising interest rate scenario helps the net interest rate margin outlook for banks. The benchmark 10-year U.S. bond yield is trading near a four-month high.

Gains in Singapore stocks this week were also helped by a record run on Wall Street that saw all three major U.S. equity benchmarks repeatedly scale record highs.

The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI ended up 0.3% to 1,764 on Friday, rising 0.5% this week. AMMB Holdings and RHB Bank were the week's top performers, adding at least 2.4% each, rebounding from last week's losses. On Friday, AMMB rose 0.2% and RHB ended little changed.

The market is expected to trade sideways in the coming week as investors await fresh catalysts which include Malaysia's upcoming 2018 fiscal budget, said Pong Teng Siew, head of research at Inter-Pacific Securities in Kuala Lumpur. "It looks like it's going to be a very quiet week ahead," with funds seen holding back positioning ahead of the budget announcement expected in the final week of this month, said Pong. His forecast model indicates a "very narrow" 14-point upside and downside for the KLCI for the whole week.

Foreign outflows from Malaysia's stock market dwindled to 29 million ringgit ($6.8 million) this week through Thursday, after last week's outflow of nearly 1 billion ringgit.

Construction and property developer WCT Holdings advanced 2.3% on Friday after is subsidiary won a contract for completion of Light Rail Transit Line 3 (LRT3) and other associated works for 640 million ringgit.

Gabungan AQRS climbed 6.4% after securing LRT3 contract worth 1.21 billion ringgit.

Source - nikkei.com

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